When will Tadej Pogačar break Mark Cavendish’s Tour de France stage wins record? The question has been on the minds of cycling fans ever since Pogačar joked with Cavendish about not breaking his record, and with good reason. Pogačar is on a tear, and his pace is only getting faster. But how soon will he catch up to Cavendish’s 35 stage wins? And what does it mean for the future of the sport?
How Cavendish did it
Cavendish’s dominance in the early years was remarkable. His sprinting prowess, combined with a well-oiled leadout train, allowed him to rack up 20 victories in just four years. But what’s truly impressive is that he kept going, pushing through tough periods and injuries to finish the job. It’s rare for a rider to be winning stages well into their 30s, and Cavendish did it consistently from 2008 to 2024.
There were a few notable gaps in his record. A crash on the opening day of the 2014 Tour and a four-year absence due to illness and personal struggles slowed him down. But he rallied, joining the Deceuninck Quick-Step squad and winning four stages in 2021. It’s a testament to his resilience and determination.
How Pogačar is doing it
Pogačar, just six years into his Tour career, already has 25 stage wins – the same number Cavendish had at that point. And he’s winning like a sprinter, with three wins in the Tour almost becoming a guarantee. It’s not just his form, but his consistency and ability to finish the race that sets him apart.
In the first two weeks of the 2026 Tour, Pogačar has already amassed four stages. And with a tough final week ahead, it’s likely he’ll add more to his tally. But will he break the record? If he keeps up an average of four stage wins, he’ll tie or surpass Cavendish’s mark in 2029. And with Slovenia hoping to host the Tour’s Grand Départ that year, it’s a fitting target.
What could slow him down?
Pogačar’s pace is impressive, but it’s not unstoppable. A study suggests that peak performance for professional cyclists is around 26-27.5 years old, and Pogačar is already 27. But he’s an outlier, and only time will tell if he can keep going.
The biggest threat might be other riders stepping up their game. Remco Evenepoel is back in Grand Tour form, and Paul Seixas is coming through faster than Pogačar. Even Pogačar’s teammate, Isaac del Toro, is getting better. But with the new Paris finale route and its triple ascent of the cobbled Étage de la Butte Montmartre, Pogačar still has an edge.
The future of the sport
Pogačar’s pursuit of Cavendish’s record is an exciting development for the sport. It’s a testament to the rising generation of cyclists and their ability to push the boundaries. But it also raises questions about the future of the sport and the role of sprinters.
In my opinion, the Tour de France needs a mix of riders – sprinters, climbers, and classics specialists. Pogačar’s success highlights the importance of sprinters, but it’s also a reminder that the sport needs balance. As Pogačar continues to dominate, the question remains: How will the Tour de France evolve in the coming years?
One thing is certain: The pursuit of records and glory will continue to drive the sport forward. And with Pogačar on the rise, the future of the Tour de France looks bright – and full of excitement.
